Bhawna Thakur
North News
Chandigarh, September 25
India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country by the end of April 2023, representing 17.5% of the global population, according to United Nations forecasts. However, a research report from the State Bank of India (SBI) projects that India’s population growth rate will continue to decline in the coming years.
“Our research shows that the average annual exponential growth rate has been on a downward trajectory, decreasing from 2.2% in 1971 to around 1% in 2024, placing the national population between 1.38 to 1.42 billion in 2024,” the SBI report stated.
The study highlights regional variations in population growth, with southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana showing a reduced share in incremental growth compared to 2011. In contrast, northern states, particularly Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, are driving population growth, accounting for 33% of the incremental increase. Together, the northern and eastern regions are projected to represent 52% of the national population, up slightly from 51% in 2011.
The working-age population (15-59) continues to rise, a trend seen since 1971. “In 2021, the working-age group constituted 64.4% of the population, and it is expected to reach 65.2% by the 2031 census, which bodes well for national productivity,” the report noted.
Meanwhile, the proportion of children aged 0-14 is projected to decline from 30.9% in 2011 to 24.3% in 2024, reflecting a shift that began in the 1970s. Conversely, the elderly population has been steadily increasing since 1951 and is expected to reach 10.7% in 2024, with further growth to 13.1% projected by 2033.
The SBI report also emphasized India’s ongoing urbanization. “Census 2011 recorded 31.1% of the population living in urban areas, a figure expected to rise to 35-37% by the 2024 census. Additionally, the share of the population living in urban agglomerations of more than one million has increased from 14.3% in 2014 to 16.6% in 2023.”
